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Sunday, February 27, 2011

Contagion Libya

Medina._Tripoli._Libya.Image via WikipediaAs of today Eastern and some of the West coast of Libya appears to have freed themselves from the vice grip of Qaddafi’s regime. This situation highlights the problem of the economics of class and hierarchy. When an economy is structured to create a gap between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’ it is, by its own nature, unstable. When that gap is allowed to widen, the situation becomes a powder keg needing only a spark to ignite it.


Given that Libya is one of the largest oil states globally, we will no doubt be watching the events in Tripoli closely as they unfold. As westerners we have the opportunity to shift our dialogue and perspective on these events. In essence, we have previously participated in the region as multinational companies negotiating with autocratic leaders for rights to the natural resources and infrastructure projects. The conversation will be very different going forward. Our role has to be to support the empowerment of the people of the region, so that there can be a return to stability and to optimal trading.

The profitability of existing foreign operations in the Middle East/North Africa will no doubt be negatively impacted. However there are any number of new business models that will thrive under the new paradigm. We have the experience of the fall of communism in Eastern Europe as a potential model for assisting these countries to re-engage with the global economy. Hopefully we learned lessons from that process that can inform this new paradigm the world is facing.



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